eFlation

Paratrade Systems Weekly Research News

I can’t measure inflation using monthly data releases since they are too infrequent. I can follow the primary drivers or beneficiaries of inflation daily by looking at oil and the US dollar.
1) Oil
Crude oil is a huge factor affecting almost all commodity prices since it affects transportation costs. Because so much of it is produced offshore, it also gives a good measure of global inflationary
pressures.
2) The Dollar
If the US dollar is rising then the cost of imported goods will fall. If it is rising (in particular) against the Australian dollar then we will also get a measure of how a commodity exporting country is doing. When inflation is falling and the dollar is rising the the A$ will be in big trouble. This will serve as a second (excellent) measure of inflationary conditions.
3) Investor Fear
I have described how important stock market sentiment is to future stock market returns. It also matters to the bond market but not quite as much. I combine it here with my inflation gauges to create one single variable I call eFlation.

In this chart I flip eFlation upside down since lower inflation is good for bonds and visa versa.I allow it to range between -100 and +150 You can see you clearly the bond market follows this variable over the period. This is not a fluke. It is rare to see bonds fight their way higher when eFlation is rising.